Scorigami Watch
Scorigami Watch: Matchweek 6
The odds each game this round ends in a result the Premier League has never seen, from a goals model of recent form. Updated every morning.
A never-seen result this round
1 in 190
Likeliest game
1 in 930
Liverpool v Man City
Likeliest never-seen score
2–7
Ipswich Town v Fulham, 1 in 2,900
Matchweek 6, 2026/27
Sat, Oct 10, 06:30 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 14,000
- Most likely score
- 1–0 (15%)
- Expected goals
- 1.8 – 0.7
- A result not yet seen this season
- 14%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 8–3 (1 in 79,000)
Sat, Oct 10, 09:00 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 1,700
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (11%)
- Expected goals
- 1.6 – 1.4
- A result not yet seen this season
- 22%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 4–6 (1 in 7,500)
Sat, Oct 10, 09:00 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 1,300
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (11%)
- Expected goals
- 1.7 – 1.4
- A result not yet seen this season
- 24%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 4–6 (1 in 5,800)
Sat, Oct 10, 09:00 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 1,000
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (11%)
- Expected goals
- 1.2 – 1.7
- A result not yet seen this season
- 24%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 2–7 (1 in 2,900)
Sat, Oct 10, 09:00 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 2,700
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (12%)
- Expected goals
- 1.2 – 1.4
- A result not yet seen this season
- 19%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 2–7 (1 in 7,800)
Sat, Oct 10, 11:30 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 1,900
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (10%)
- Expected goals
- 1.9 – 1.2
- A result not yet seen this season
- 23%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 4–6 (1 in 10,000)
Sun, Oct 11, 08:00 AM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 5,300
- Most likely score
- 1–1 (13%)
- Expected goals
- 1.3 – 1.2
- A result not yet seen this season
- 16%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 2–7 (1 in 17,000)
Mon, Oct 12, 02:00 PM CDT
Never-seen result
1 in 1,600
- Most likely score
- 0–1 (12%)
- Expected goals
- 1.0 – 1.7
- A result not yet seen this season
- 22%
- Likeliest never-seen score
- 2–7 (1 in 3,700)
Kick-off times are in your time zone. Updated Sep 24, 09:53 AM.
The last time the Premier League produced a result it had never seen was Sheffield Utd 0–8 Newcastle on 24 September 2023, 3 years ago.
How the odds are worked out
Every Premier League result since 1992 decides which scores have never happened. The last three seasons go into a goals model: each club gets an attacking and a defensive rating, fitted to its results with older matches counting for less (a match a year ago counts half as much as one today). Home sides get a boost, and a newly promoted club starts from a typical promoted side's ratings until its own results take over.
The ratings give each side's expected goals for a fixture, and treating each side's goals as a Poisson count gives the chance of every possible score, from 0–0 up to 15–15. The odds of a never-seen result add up the chances of every score that has never happened with the same side at home.
What counts as never seen?
A result counts as new when that exact home–away score has never happened, the empty squares on the home/away grid. That includes a classic scorigami (a score never seen either way round) and a result that has only happened the other way round, such as the first away 2–7. The first-of-the-season figure is the chance of a result that hasn't happened yet this season.
How accurate is it?
Tested on every match from 2016/17 to 2025/26, using only the results before each one, the model expected 3.3 never-seen results across those ten seasons; there were 3. It expected 360 first-of-the-season results; there were 345. It can't know about injuries, red cards or weather, so treat a single fixture's odds as a guide rather than a forecast.
When is it updated?
Every morning, from the latest fixtures and results. Before each round, @pl_gami posts the round's odds, and when a never-seen result happens it posts it within minutes of full time.